Experts agree that future quantum computers will break most current encryption when they become sufficiently powerful. The code to do this – Shor’s algorithm – has already been written. It just needs a powerful enough quantum computer to run on.
According to the Cloud Security Alliance (CSA), a suitable quantum computer will be available by 2030. The CSA created a quantum-safe security working group in March 2023 and even has a “cryptopocalypse” countdown clock on its website.
A November 2022 memorandum from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget requires federal agencies to migrate to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2035 and to have a plan in place by May 2023.